Talks

Critical behaviour associated with the occurrence of tipping points is one of the key aspects of the dynamics of the Earth system. Criticality occurs in many different forms and with different characteristic spatial and temporal scales. Past critical transitions have sometimes been associated with mass extinction events, and the snowball/warm Earth dichotomy has played a major role in the emergence of multicellular life. Currently, anthropogenic forcing to the climate system seem to be bringing some multi stable subcomponents of the climate closer to a bifurcation point, as in the case of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the Greenland ice sheet. We will present here a general mathematical framework to look into critical behaviour in the Earth system. We will connect the analysis of the response of the system to perturbation in connection to its global stability properties and discuss ideas for creating robust early warning signals.

Recent efforts in building data-driven surrogates for weather forecasting applications have received a lot of attention and garnered noticeable success. These autoregressive data-driven models yield significantly competitive short-term forecasting performance (often outperforming traditional numerical weather models) at a fraction of the computational cost of numerical models. However, these data-driven models do not remain stable when time-integrated for a long time. Such a long time-integration would provide (1) a method to seamlessly scale a weather model to a climate model and (2) gathering insights into the statistics of that climate system, e.g., the extreme events, owing to the cheap cost of generating multiple ensembles. While many studies have reported this instability, especially for data-driven models of turbulent flow, a causal mechanism for this instability is not clear. Most efforts to obtain stability are ad-hoc and empirical. In this work, we use a canonical quasi-geost...

I will argue that there are quantum states of the field theories of general relativity and electromagnetism that we typically ignore, but have interesting phenomenological effects. These states amount to relaxing the constraint equations known as the Hamiltonian and momentum constraints in GR and Gauss’ law in EM. Turning off the Hamiltonian constraint sources non-dynamical parts of the metric which mimic a pressure-less dust, and thus these effects may be the explanation as to why we have inferred the existence of dark matter, both locally and cosmologically. Turning off the momentum constraints add additional velocity-dependent source terms to this effective dust, but these effects are not conserved and redshift quickly outside the horizon. Turning off the Gauss’ law constraint mimics a charge density that does not respond to electric forces, but follows geodesics, thus adding a charged component to the dust. The effects in electromagnetism may have interesting impacts on BBN, the baryon-photon fluid during and after recombination, galactic dynamics, and cosmic rays. If this new structure in the gravitational and electric fields explain dark matter, it forbids an early period of inflation and therefore requires a different explanation for density perturbations.

Permafrost can potentially release more than twice as much carbon than is currently in the atmosphere, and is warming at a rate twice as fast as the rest of the planet. Fundamentally, the thawing permafrost is a phase transition phenomenon, where a solid turns to liquid, albeit on large regional scales and over a period of time that depends on environmental forcing and other factors. In this talk, we present mathematical models that help to understand the processes on the interface "frozen ground-atmosphere" and investigate their criticality.

Eddy viscosity is employed throughout the majority of numerical fluid dynamical models, and has been the subject of a vigorous body of research spanning a variety of disciplines. It has long been recognized that the proper description of eddy viscosity uses tensor mathematics, but in practice it is almost always employed as a scalar due to uncertainty about how to constrain the extra degrees of freedom and physical properties of its tensorial form. This talk will introduce techniques from outside the realm of geophysical fluid dynamics that allow us to consider the eddy viscosity tensor using its eigenvalues and eigenvectors, establishing a new framework by which tensorial eddy viscosity can be tested. This is made possible by a careful analysis of an operation called tensor unrolling, which casts the eigenvalue problem for a fourth-order tensor into a more familiar matrix-vector form, whereby it becomes far easier to understand and manipulate. New constraints are established for th...

Eddy viscosity is employed throughout the majority of numerical fluid dynamical models, and has been the subject of a vigorous body of research spanning a variety of disciplines. It has long been recognized that the proper description of eddy viscosity uses tensor mathematics, but in practice it is almost always employed as a scalar due to uncertainty about how to constrain the extra degrees of freedom and physical properties of its tensorial form. This talk will introduce techniques from outside the realm of geophysical fluid dynamics that allow us to consider the eddy viscosity tensor using its eigenvalues and eigenvectors, establishing a new framework by which tensorial eddy viscosity can be tested. This is made possible by a careful analysis of an operation called tensor unrolling, which casts the eigenvalue problem for a fourth-order tensor into a more familiar matrix-vector form, whereby it becomes far easier to understand and manipulate. New constraints are established for the e...

The interannual-to-longer timescale (also referred to as low-frequency) variability in sea surface temperature (SST) of the Indian Ocean (IO) plays a crucial role in affecting the regional climate. This low-frequency variability can be caused by surface forcings and oceanic internal variability. Our study utilizes a high-resolution global model simulation to investigate the factors contributing to this observed variability and finds that internal oceanic variability plays a crucial role in driving the interannual to longer timescale variability in the southern IO. While previous studies have explored the impact of internal variability in the Indian Ocean, they have primarily focused on the tropical basin due to limitations imposed by the regional setup of the models used. However, our analysis reveals a notable southward shift in the latitude band of active internal variability for the interannual to longer period compared to earlier estimations based on coarser Indian Ocean regional m...