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Causal reasoning is vital for effective reasoning in many domains, from healthcare to economics. In medical diagnosis, for example, a doctor aims to explain a patient’s symptoms by determining the diseases causing them. This is because causal relations, unlike correlations, allow one to reason about the consequences of possible treatments and to answer counterfactual queries. In this talk I will present two recent causal inference projects done with my collaborators deriving new algorithms to solve problems that arise when applying causal inference in the real world.

"Linear structural equation models relate random variables of interest via a linear equation system that features stochastic noise. The models are naturally represented by directed graphs whose edges indicate non-zero coefficients in the linear equations. In this talk I will report on progress on combinatorial conditions for parameter identifiability in models with latent (i.e., unobserved) variables. Identifiability holds if the coefficients associated with the edges of the graph can be uniquely recovered from the covariance matrix they define. Paper: https://doi.org/10.1214/22-AOS2221 or https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.04457"

There has been recent interest in extending the concept of contextuality to cases of disturbance or inconsistent connectedness. This talk will describe an approach using probabilistic causal models, which generalize the hidden-variables models of Bell and Kochen & Specker, following recent work by Cavalcanti. I first prove an equivalence between three conditions on an arbitrary measurement system: (1) existence of a model minimizing all causal influences of context upon measurement outcomes, (2) prohibition of a form of "hidden" causal influence, and (3) noncontextuality as defined in the Contextuality-by-Default (CbD) theory of Dzhafarov and Kujala. The no-hidden-influence principle thus confers a physical interpretation to CbD-contextuality, paralleling Bell's local causality and Kochen & Specker's classical embeddability. I then extend this analysis to other causal graph topologies, showing that different graphs yield different notions of contextuality, but only the one corresponding to CbD agrees with traditional contextuality when restricted to non-disturbing systems.

I will discuss several issues related to the computation of Poisson brackets in field theories. I will show that by choosing appropriate functional spaces as configuration manifolds, it is possible to avoid the use of distributions. This is relevant, for instance, in the context of Loop Quantum Gravity, where the basic holonomy/flux variables play a central role. I will illustrate the main ideas by using simple examples based on Sobolev spaces.

Zoom link:  https://pitp.zoom.us/j/92794475242?pwd=T2Fjbk1lTXRCNnBxVDZabnJqWlAzUT09

In a recent paper, Chaturvedi et al considered the interesting idea of routed Bell experiments. These are Bell experiments where Bob can measure his quantum particles at two distinct locations, one close to the source and another far away. This can be accomplished in the lab by using a switch that directs Bob's quantum particle either to the nearby measurement device or to the distant one, depending on a classical input chosen by Bob. Chaturvedi et al argue that there exists in such experiments a tradeoff between short-range and long-range correlations and that high-quality CHSH tests close to the source (which are achievable with current technology) lower the requirements for witnessing nonlocality faraway from the source, and in particular increase their tolerance to particle losses. We critically review their results and present a simple counterexample to it. We then introduce a class of hybrid quantum-classical models, which we refer to as "short-range quantum models". These models suitably capture the tradeoff between short-range and long-range correlations in routed Bell experiments. Using our definition, we explore new nonlocal tests in which high-quality short-range correlations lead to weakened conditions for long-range tests. Although we do find improvements, they are significantly smaller than those claimed by CVP.

Highly magnetized neutron stars are a source of extreme transients observed in different bands, like the fast radio burst (FRB) and associated hard X-ray burst from the Galactic magnetar SGR 1935+2154. The origin of such outbursts, hard X-rays on the one hand and millisecond duration FRBs on the other hand, is still unknown. We present a global model for various kinds of such magnetar outbursting activities. Crustal surface motions are expected to twist the inner magnetar magnetosphere by shifting the frozen-in footpoints of magnetic field lines. We discuss criteria for the development of various instabilities of 3D twisted flux bundles in the force-free dipolar magnetospheres and compare their energetic properties to observations of magnetar X-ray flares. We then review a recently developed FRB generation mechanism in the outer magnetosphere of a magnetar. The strong magnetic pulse induced by a magnetar flare collides with the current sheet of the magnetar wind, compresses and fragments it into a self-similar chain of magnetic islands. Time-dependent plasma currents created during their collisions produce relatively narrow-band GHz emission with luminosities sufficient to explain bright extragalactic FRBs.

Zoom ink:  https://pitp.zoom.us/j/96469987183?pwd=N1UzVkh6RGZUeWV6TFZJLzk0M3VWZz09

"Many relevant tasks in Quantum Information processing can be expressed as polynomial optimization problems over states and operators. In the earlier talk by David, we saw that this is also the case for certain (quantum) causal compatibility and causal optimization problems. This talk will focus on several closely related semidefinite programming (SDP) hierarchies that have recently been shown to be complete for such polynomial optimization problems [arxiv:2110.14659, 2212.11299, 2301.12513]. We give a high-level overview of the techniques and mathematics that are needed for proving such statements. In particular, we will see a version of a Quantum De Finetti theorem, as well as a sketch of a constructive proof of convergence for the SDP hierarchies. Afterwards, these results are linked back to the causal compatibility problem to conclude that such SDP hierarchies are complete for a certain type of causal structures known as tree networks."

"Is there a complete semi-definite programming hierarchy for quantum causal problems? We divide the question into two parts. First: Can quantum causal problems be expressed as polynomial optimization problems (this talk). Second: Can this class of polynomial optimizations be solved by means of SDPs (Laurens' talk). The optimizations we consider here are ""polynomial"" in two ways. They are over the unknown observable algebra of the hidden systems, which are specified by non-commutative polynomials in a set of generators. But they also involve independence constraints, which are commutative polynomials in the state. A hierarchy of such polynomial tests is complete if one can construct a quantum model for any observed distribution that passes all of them. We've recently had some success in finding such constructions, but also ran into problems in the general case [1, 2]. I give a high-level presentation of the state of the play. [1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.14659 [2] https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.11299"

For binary instrumental variable models, there seems to be a long-standing gap between two sets of bounds on the average treatment effect: the stronger Balke–Pearl ("sharp") bounds versus the weaker Robins–Manski ("natural") bounds. In the literature, the Balke–Pearl bounds are typically derived under stronger assumptions, i.e., either individual exclusion or joint exogeneity, which are untestable cross-world statements, while the natural bounds only require testable assumptions. In this talk, I show that the stronger bounds are justified by the existence of a latent confounder. In fact, the Balke–Pearl bounds are sharp under latent confounding and stochastic exclusion. The "secret sauce" that closes this gap is a set of CHSH-type inequalities that generalize Bell's (1964) inequality.