Can we quantify ‘luck’ in cricket? How ESPNcricinfo came up with Luck Index and Smart Stats for T20s

Abstract

‘Luck’ has always been seen as a vague and difficult-to-quantify aspect of sport. Commentators and players often talk about it, but in imprecise terms, putting an approximate ‘gut-feel’ value to its cost to the opposing team. (‘The dropped catch of Virat Kohli cost England at least 30 runs’)

In a collaboration with IIT-Madras, a small team at ESPNcricinfo worked on this aspect as part of a suite of new, in-depth metrics which would help understand better the nuances of T20 cricket. Luck Index attempted to define these specific ‘lucky events’ along with the team that benefited, and then work out the value of that event based on putting together an alternative narrative of what would have transpired in that team innings without that ‘lucky event’.

Luck Index was part of a set of three metrics developed by ESPNcricinfo along with IIT-Madras, the other two metrics being the Forecaster and Smart Stats. The Forecaster is a predictive tool which forecasters team score and win percentages for each team based on the current match situation, while Smart Stats gives impact values to each batting and bowling performance based on detailed match context inputs. These metrics have helped in a better and more nuanced understanding of T20 cricket.