ICTS:30281

Video URL

From Critical Phenomena to Prediction of the Indian Summer Monsoon

From Critical Phenomena to Prediction of the Indian Summer Monsoon

(2024). From Critical Phenomena to Prediction of the Indian Summer Monsoon. SciVideos. https://youtube.com/live/b6Wn-6wJwwM

From Critical Phenomena to Prediction of the Indian Summer Monsoon. SciVideos, Nov. 13, 2024, https://youtube.com/live/b6Wn-6wJwwM 

          @misc{ scivideos_ICTS:30281,
            doi = {},
            url = {https://youtube.com/live/b6Wn-6wJwwM},
            author = {},
            keywords = {},
            language = {en},
            title = {From Critical Phenomena to Prediction of the Indian Summer Monsoon},
            publisher = {},
            year = {2024},
            month = {nov},
            note = {ICTS:30281 see, \url{https://scivideos.org/icts-tifr/30281}}
          }
Elena Surovyatkina
Talk numberICTS:30281
Source RepositoryICTS-TIFR
Source EventClimate Dynamics and Networks
Collection

Abstract

The critical phenomena occur in the vicinity of the critical point. These phenomena are indicators of an impending critical transition. Earlier methods treated the critical phenomena as early warning signals. However, they do not show any example where early warning signals have been used to avert an impending transition. They have been used in models, experiments or retrospectively.

The talk will present a perspective on how to address this challenge. I will discuss important limitations that must be accepted to build the knowledge needed for better prediction. I will apply the theory of critical transitions to a prediction of the onset and withdrawal dates of the Indian summer monsoon.

The abruptness of the onset and end of the monsoon and its interannual variability within a month are key features of the phenomenon that make monsoon forecasting extremely challenging. I will describe the main principles of monsoon timing prediction and show the cases for central India. Special ...