ICTS:30266

Video URL

Forecasting Monsoon Onset and Withdrawal in the Face of Climate Change

Forecasting Monsoon Onset and Withdrawal in the Face of Climate Change

(2024). Forecasting Monsoon Onset and Withdrawal in the Face of Climate Change. SciVideos. https://youtube.com/live/whwBs3CSYLk

Forecasting Monsoon Onset and Withdrawal in the Face of Climate Change. SciVideos, Nov. 13, 2024, https://youtube.com/live/whwBs3CSYLk 

          @misc{ scivideos_ICTS:30266,
            doi = {},
            url = {https://youtube.com/live/whwBs3CSYLk},
            author = {},
            keywords = {},
            language = {en},
            title = {Forecasting Monsoon Onset and Withdrawal in the Face of Climate Change},
            publisher = {},
            year = {2024},
            month = {nov},
            note = {ICTS:30266 see, \url{https://scivideos.org/icts-tifr/30266}}
          }
Elena Surovyatkina
Talk numberICTS:30266
Source RepositoryICTS-TIFR
Source EventClimate Dynamics and Networks
Collection

Abstract

The timing of monsoon season onset and withdrawal is of paramount importance to the population of the Indian subcontinent. Despite the rainy season occurring annually between June and September, the onset and withdrawal dates vary by up to a month from year to year, making accurate predictions a significant challenge.

However, a revolutionary approach has been developed those promises to transform our understanding of this phenomenon. By comprehending the core physical mechanisms involved in monsoon onset and withdrawal, spatial-temporal regularities have been discovered that can be used for forecasting. This approach fundamentally diverges from the traditional numerical weather and climate models by relying on the Nonlinear Dynamics and Nonlinear Phenomena in Statistical Physics.

This approach demonstrated successful results over a rigorous nine-year testing period, forecasting the onset date up to 40 days in advance and the withdrawal date up to 70 days in advance. It is also a...