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Carrying the insights of conditional probability to the quantum realm is notoriously difficult due to the non-commutative nature of quantum observables. Nevertheless, conditional expectations on C* and von Neumann algebras have played a significant role in the development of quantum information theory, and especially the study of quantum error correction. In quantum gravity, it has been suggested that conditional expectations may be used to implement the holographic map algebraically, with quantum error correction underlying the emergence of spacetime through the generalized entropy formula. However, the requirements for exact error correction are almost certainly too strong for realistic theories of quantum gravity. In this talk, we provide an overview of the multifaceted nature of quantum conditional probability by exploring different non-commutative generalizations of conditional expectations which meet the demands of non-exact error correction. We then exemplify the utility of these tools through two examples. First, we demonstrate how operator valued weights can be used to classify the possible symmetries (including non-invertible symmetries) of a quantum system. Then, we introduce a generalization of Connes’ spatial theory leading to a fully non-commutative form of Bayes' law. This allows for an exact quantification of the information gap occurring in the data processing inequality for arbitrary quantum channels. When applied to algebraic inclusions, this further provides an approach to factorizing the entropy of states into a sum of terms including an emergent area operator that is fully non-commutative rather than central. 

Spacetime fluctuations can invalidate usual notions of distance, time, and even what it means to perform an experiment. This raises a simple question: when spacetime fluctuates, how do we describe what happens? Few detailed ​answers exist, even in the low-energy effective field theory of quantum gravity. In this talk, we present a study of geometric and detector observables in perturbative quantum gravity. Geometric observables—elapsed proper time, proper distance, area, and Shapiro time delay—can be defined in relation to observer worldlines. Proper time observables capture quantum gravity effects in interferometers, leading to predictions for experiments that probe the interface between quantum mechanics and gravity. Several geometric observables display a quantum version of memory. Realistic detector observables—modelled by local operators inserted along worldlines—describe measurements more directly. We compute correlators of worldline-dressed scalars at tree level with an external on-shell graviton. The worldline dressing is hardly innocuous and can, in fact, induce enormous corrections. Gravitational effects can either open or close light cones, as captured by the commutator of dressed scalars. Finally, we discuss the broader landscape of observables now within closer reach in effective field theory and holography.

Gravitational waves (GW) offer a new and independent window onto the Universe. However, as they propagate across cosmological distances, they are inevitably affected by the intervening matter distribution. In this talk, I present a comprehensive overview of my work on the gravitational lensing of GWs, spanning weak lensing by the large-scale structure of the Universe, strong lensing by galaxies, and microlensing by stars and compact objects, and covering lensing effects from the geometric-optics to the wave-optics regimes. I highlight how gravitational lensing can serve not only as a systematic effect in GW observations, but also as a novel probe of cosmic structure and fundamental physics. Finally, I discuss future directions of GW lensing studies, inspired by advances in electromagnetic lensing.

Whether quantum gravitational effects can be enhanced beyond the Planck scale is an important question for testing quantum gravity. In this talk, I will present how the fluid/gravity correspondence provides insight into the enhancement of quantum gravity fluctuations in a finite causal diamond. I will begin by reviewing the fluid/gravity correspondence in Rindler space. Based on this setup, I will show a dual fluid description of shockwave geometry using the Petrov classification. Then, I will discuss ongoing progress toward understanding connections with Carrollian fluids living on the boundary of causal diamonds. I will conclude by clarifying the assumptions under which an observable scale could emerge.